And though it may be hard to remember, Fields was actually a good passer while in college with a career 68% completion percentage, and an adjusted yards per attempt of 10.4 yards. He has underrated rushing ability, too -- he's often compared to. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 24Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 7Post-Draft Positional Rank: 8Tier: 10. A lot of that is easy to explain, to be fair. 3. Corral has a decently high ceiling as a willing scrambler with accuracy and has enough weapons around him to succeed right away. Shoutout to @Aideiko_FF who has been compiling Superflex ADP from ongoing drafts. The guy does great work and in my opinion deserves some support. Although, if Pickett can avoid falling flat on his face, he should be a popular dynasty asset in 2023. I mean if its I had the money for one, thats definitely the direction I would go, I also like JJs info much more because he explains the process behind it. By a lot. . Christian Watson is a very raw wide receiver, and I think he'll mostly be filling the Marquez Valdes-Scantling role as a rookie, plus some added schemed targets. Host Ian Hartitz is joined by Late-Round Fantasy Football creator JJ Zachariason to talk all things dynasty running backs! I'm not enthusiastic about Jelani Woods, who will likely be in a tight end by committee and has a questionable receiving profile, but the Colts tend to involve the tight end at least. Kadarius Toney falls into that group, too. Beyond that, it's really about placing your preferred longshot bets. Weather info Powered by Dark Sky. A couple of things, 1. Smith's best-season yards per team pass attempt rate -- the most predictive production-related metric in my model -- was 4.37. Even more enticing, its not a fish-in-barrel class, so others can make mistakes confidently while we laugh. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/APre-Draft Positional Rank: N/APost-Draft Positional Rank: 14Tier: 8. That's translated into 50 fewer wide receiver targets than any other team. Brown. PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. After plugging Pitts into my yearly projections, he came out as the sixth-best tight end in fantasy football. 3. You'll get the best projections in the business! I would be less concerned with their outsized touchdown scoring if their target shares were elite, but Watsons 15.2% share and Dotsons 15.9% share were just okay. I feel like he does go a little more in depth. Like I said: teams change. And speaking of my model, given Harris' first-round draft capital, he comes in as a 96th percentile running back. Lawrence enters the league with three years of starting experience and an adjusted yards per attempt rate that got better with each season after being a top recruit in the country as he exited high school. Things really start to get ugly after Trey Sermon. All rights reserved. My exuberance for Rachaad White knows no bounds. He now joins two other first-rounders since 2006 with a rate above 4.0 while being drafted in Round 1: Demaryius Thomas, Once the Alabama wide receivers are off your rookie draft board, you're faced with a real dilemma. Chris Olave (13.21), Garrett Wilson (12.69), Christian Watson (11.72), Jahan Dotson (10.88), and Drake London (10.51) all eclipsed the feat last year. Thanks to that incredibly high yards per team pass attempt rate, Eskridge checks in around the 85th percentile mark in my model. Stop stealing our stuff and ripping off our features, please. Wilson didn't face tough competition, but as Jim Sannes noted in his yearly statistically superior quarterbacks article, Wilson performed well when he did face higher-end opponents. By a lot. No guarantees are made for any specific outcome. . He breaks down the fundamentals that go into a strong process, and he does so in digestible ways with examples that are easy to understand. Dont forget to download the Rotoworld app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 13Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 9Post-Draft Positional Rank: 9Tier: 7. Overall, I felt it was definitely worth the money to have what I consider to be exceptional "beat the fantasy market" content. He's not Kyle Pitts, but Freiermuth had solid production at Penn State with a well above average breakout age. As I noted in my pre-draft rankings, one of my favorite stats about Fields came from numberFire's own Jim Sannes: 87.6% of Justin Fields' attempts last season came against top-50 defenses according to Bill Connelly's SP+ method. But during that final campaign, in games active, Stevenson compiled an impressive 15% reception share and 22% total touchdown share. Matt Kelley, aka The Podfather, hosts RotoUnderworld's flagship program delivering in-depth fantasy analysis supported by advanced metrics, insider real talk, and cheeky shenanigans. Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Which Second-Year Receivers Should You Buy? I've also been listening to JJ for what feels like too long. The award-winning Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast gives you everything you need to know about fantasy football in bite-sized 15-minute episodes. This service is intended for adult audiences. If you recall, Brown fell in rookie drafts because he landed in Tennessee, a team that was one of the most run-heavy in football. Where does Skyy Moore rank for rookie draft purposes now that he's a Kansas City Chief? Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 6Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 2Post-Draft Positional Rank: 6Tier: 4. He may be a good tackle breaker like Samuel, but he's got work to do as a wide receiver. He's justfine. Join. Trey Lance is a big mover post-draft after being selected by Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers. And the air horns. GIF. Adams, one of the most prolific touchdown-scoring wide receivers of our generation, only once in his nine-season career had a TD/Target rate greater than Dotsons 11.5% rate last year when he scored 18 during his ridiculous 2018 year. Here's my honest review, but please note that I've been a JJ fan since I started listening to him in 2019: The information itself is extremely valuable. The draft guide is awesome and offers a lot more than just semi personalized rankings. Fresh dynasty rankings just dropped on the Late-Round Fantasy Football Patreon. That'll happen when the draft is pretty boring. I'm looking forward to seeing how he updates it each week. creating Fantasy football rankings, tiers, Q&As, and more. Walker carried the ball eight times for 88 yards and a touchdown. By registering, you indicate that you agree to the Terms Of Service. The scariest part about Travis Etienne's landing spot in Jacksonville is Urban Meyer. 3. But we can't deny the immediate impact St. Brown can make, especially if he's able to capture the main slot role. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/APre-Draft Positional Rank: N/APost-Draft Positional Rank: 9Tier: 10. After he went 20th in the NFL draft, it's impossible not to rank Kenny Pickett as the Superflex QB1 and believe me, I've tried. With David Montgomery in the last year of his deal, Trestan Ebner is my favorite late-round receiving back. There was a clear-cut group of three running backs at the top of the position heading into the draft, and the same can be said post-draft. Im huge on historical precedent and most of the names who have previously scored at least 10.5 PPG in their rookie season (since 2018) are pretty impressive, with the exception of Laviska Shenault, Preston Williams, and Chase Claypool. Without the rushing component that the other quarterbacks bring, Jones may be a better superflex bet than a single-quarterback league one. That's the feeling I get. The difference? He has a complete production profile (aside from not being an early-declare receiver), and his prospect score in my model is well above average for a fourth-round pick. We know how Sam Darnold's 2022 is going to go. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 1Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 1Post-Draft Positional Rank: 1Tier: 1. During his lone full season as starter in college, Lance rushed for 1,100 yards on the ground in 16 games. 6. In 2023, Brady will likely be gone; but unfortunately, Leonard Fournette is locked up through the end of that season. In 2019, they were first. Greg Dulcich's situation is murkier. The consensus QB1 in this class went first overall in the draft, and if you snag him in your rookie drafts, you're likely getting a starter for the next decade. Sucks about the charts, I feel that I can create some baller ass tableau charts that get me the same data, but by then my head is so deep in data I forget the football. The Ravens run the football efficiently. 2. You'll also get priority for mailbag questions for The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast's weekly mailbag episode. That has to count for something. His production took a dip from his Sophomore to Junior season at USC, where he went from playing 89% of his snaps from the slot to just 28%. For more information, please see our He was my pre-draft WR2 for a reason. Insiders will have access to everything Explorers get, but they also will have access to Q&A livestreams with JJ (at least once a month out of season and twice a week during), rest-of-season rankings and tiers (updated weekly in-season), and rankings and tiers for the upcoming week of games. If he can't emerge as a receiver under those circumstances, it wasn't happening. Top-10 Rookie WR Rankings with JJ Zachariason. JJ Zachariason's Tweets. I'm not totally sure where it originated from but I first heard Ben Gretch (@yardspergretch) lay it out and JJ Zachariason (@lateroundqb . Read Locked On Jaguars: Interviews from Day 3 of East-West Shrine Game Practices by with a free trial. He's a low-floor play, but his ADP mostly bakes that in. Marshall had medical issues that popped up right before the draft, and that could be the reason we saw him as a second-round wideout instead of a first-round one. Want more info about DLF Premium? If you filter out the players who had a best-season yards per team pass attempt that was under 3.0, seven players remain: Corey Davis, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Justin Blackmon, Julio Jones, and Calvin Johnson. Sony Michel could be out of New England next season with the Patriots likely to decline his fifth-year option, and with Damien Harris as Stevenson's main competition, there could be a path to playing time in Year 2. Read millions of eBooks and audiobooks on the web, iPad, iPhone and Android. For me, sometimes I miss a few things on the podcast that made more sense when I read through it in the guide. It doesnt matter how you get me your questions, just make sure you get them to me and Ill answer them every week. Dynasty Rankings. There've been 18 wide receivers selected with top-10 capital since 2006. Post-Published Note: After more thought, Jaylen Waddle has been bumped down into Tier 4. Mock Draft Trainer. Wondering if anyone has purchased it and what their thoughts were on it. 2. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/APre-Draft Positional Rank: N/APost-Draft Positional Rank: 15Tier: 8. Adam Levitan talks to JJ Zachariason and Mike Leone about how to adjust. But if there is one guy it might be worth it for, this would be the one. I say all this to say, my buys from the second-year receiver class are limited to that first subset of players discussed, Olave, Wilson, Watson, Dotson, and London. Many have pointed to the 2020 Bills as the perfect example of a run-heavy team moving to become a pass-heavy one. That was used against Brown at the time, but things hit with. Eric Ebron and JuJu Smith-Schuster could be gone, opening things up for Freiermuth to be the team's primary tight end and target in the middle of the field. That's the thing. And like Jones in 2020 and Zach Wilson now, it should be easy to trade him for more than the mid-late first it took to get him. JJ is the founder of LateRoundQB.com and author of The Late Round Quarterback. With early fourth-round draft capital, Fitzpatrick is a 67th percentile prospect in the model, which isn't noteworthy at all. Londons 29.4% target share ranked fifth among wide receivers last year, and if you are an adherent to the Peter Howard targets are earned dogma then you know why that matters. Smug sometimes, yeah, but he gives his listeners/viewers/readers the understanding and knowledge to be a JJ. I'll side with first-round running back history here, though, and continue to view Etienne as a high-end fantasy football asset. He deserves support imo. Through those contests, though, he had more receiving yards than Heisman winner Devonta Smith. JJ wrote an e-book called The Late-Round Quarterback in 2012. Just saw this post and genuinely appreciate all the feedback. Yes, you can easily cancel or upgrade your pledge at any time. Insider. Watson scored a touchdown on 10.6% of his targets last season, and Dotson did so on 11.5% of his targets, compared to just 3.4% for London. You have to have an open mind when analyzing fantasy football. More so than any other position, running backs make up the far majority of any season's league-winners.And, typically, you're going to have to pay up to acquire them. But it's not like we have a big sample of Meyer as a coach in the NFL, so anything's possible. would be the team's 1-2 punch, seemingly on early downs. Hes now talked to an audience of fantasy football diehards for almost a decade. Instead of a player like Montgomery, though, Green Bay's hoping they have more of a Deebo Samuel type in Rodgers. Go to builtbar.com and use . Similar to Powell, Dez Fitzpatrick doesn't really pop in my prospect model. Both are very much in play for the Superflex 1.01. In fact, he comes in as a 44th percentile prospect in my model. And it's not like the landing spot dramatically changed his location in my rankings. To me, the Falcons don't make Pitts the fourth-overall selection to have him stay at the line blocking like the typical tight end. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts, JJ Zachariason, Late-Round Fantasy Football. He doesn't beat you over the head with "draft this guy" he instead explains why he likes certain players and how he came to that conclusion (his "model"). Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 26Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 2Post-Draft Positional Rank: 2Tier: 8. 2009-2018 numberFire, Inc. Certain headlines thanks to Rotoworld. Considering Davis came from a smaller program and Blackmon had off-the-field issues, Watkins is the player here who didn't live up to elite expectation. I'm lower than consensus, but I recommend getting some exposure. He may play a little undersized -- he weighed in at 215 pounds at his Pro Day, but he's noted that he plays smaller than that -- and that could help James Robinson stick around in some sort of early-down role. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 20Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 6Post-Draft Positional Rank: 5Tier: 6. DISCLAIMER: This site and the products offered are for entertainment purposes only, and there is no gambling offered on this site. And with Austin Ekeler potentially moving on after 2023, Spiller has an unlikely but plausible path to becoming a long-term starter. His production then dipped pretty dramatically last year, and the rest is history. If Christian McCaffrey gets banged up again, though, then we may see Hubbard with a season like Mike Davis had in 2020. Dynasty Crossroads Episode 258 JJ Zachariason. The biggest faller from these pre- to post-draft rankings is Tylan Wallace. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/APre-Draft Positional Rank: N/APost-Draft Positional Rank: 19Tier: 11. Listeners/Viewers/Readers the understanding and knowledge to be a JJ Meyer as a receiver under circumstances... 8Tier: 10 for rookie draft purposes now that he 's a low-floor play, Freiermuth! Of LateRoundQB.com and author of the Late Round Quarterback offered are for purposes! His face, he comes in as a receiver under those circumstances, it not! A season like Mike Davis had in 2020 all things dynasty running backs 3 of East-West Shrine Practices. Wondering if anyone has purchased it and what their thoughts were on it rushing ability, --... 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